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Moore
on Moore
No Exponential is Forever
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 Plenary
Address at ISSCC 2003, the 50th Anniversary, Gordon Moore,
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No
exponential is forever: but "Forever" can be delayed!
Slides included. User authentication required for
paper in IEEE Xplore.
Abstract:
Chip complexity, chip performance, feature size, and the numbers of
transistors produced each year are a few of the parameters of the semiconductor
industry that have changed exponentially over the last 50 years. Gordon
Moore, the co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor that produced the first
commerical integrated circuit, and the cofounder of Intel the semiconductor
giant, describes the fantastic growth of this technology now the foundation
of a trillion-dollar electronics industry.
- Revenues, size
and sales,
- The predictions,
the plots and the wafer sizes.
- Nano fabrication.
- Performance
- Lithography
"Each ant in
the world has to carry 10 to a hundred transistors if it's going to
take care of its load of transistors made."
"We sell them
for about the same price as a printed character in the Sunday New York
Times. "
"...tri gate
structure ..changes the way I've always thought that transistors around
completely."
"We make a
relatively thick film and make the transistor move in the other direction.
The gate wraps completely around the silicon, which is sitting on a
silicon insulator in this case. You can make a fully depleted transistor,
cut the leakage current dramatically and get very high performance."
40th
Anniversary Intel Site
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Edholm's
Law of Bandwidth
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Do
telecom data rates mimic Moore's law?
by Steven
Cherry
Spectrum,
IEEE , July, 2004
Abstract:
The data rates of
cellular, Ethernet and traditional dial-up modems are all increasing
and according to Edholm's Law, march almost in lock step. Their data
rates increase on similar exponential curves, the slower rates trailing
the faster ones by a predictable time lag. A logarithmic chart plotted
against time, results in three straight lines for the telecom categories
that converge in 2030. Named after Phil Edholm, Nortel's chief technology
officer and vice president of network architecture.
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Ross
on Moore,
5 Commandments
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5
Commandments [technology laws and rules of thumb]
Ross, P.E.;
Spectrum, IEEE , December, 2003
Abstract:
There are sublime, silly, real and true laws, and folksy rules of thumb
laws that have come up from mathematical observations, pithy pronouncements,
and even a few enduring self-fulfilling prophecies about technology.
The article discusses how some laws have fared in time. These laws include:
Moore's Law - the number of transistors on a chip doubles annually;
Rock's Law - the cost of semiconductor tools doubles every four years;
Machrone's Law the PC you want to buy will always be $5000; Metcalfe's
Law - a network's value grows proportionately to the number of its users
squared; and Wirth's Law - software is slowing faster than hardware
is accelerating.
Meindl
on Moore,
The Interconnect Era |
Beyond
Moore's Law: the interconnect era
Meindl, J.D.
Microelectron. Res. Center, Georgia Inst. of Technol.,
Atlanta, GA, USA
Computing in Science & Engineering, Jan.-Feb. 2003
Abstract:
Reversing early limitations on Moore's law, interconnectors have replaced
transistors as the main determinants of chip performance. Examples consider
nanoelectronics and superconductors
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